My Oscar Picks 2013

My opinion really doesn't count for all that much this year as some personal issues have kept me from seeing many of the films this year, but folks expect to see my picks, so this year, I will choose by instinct and odds rather than any educated guesses. I still might get lucky. Here you go...

Best animated feature - Brave

Best animated short film - Paperman

Best visual effects - Marvel's The Avengers

Best original screenplay - Django Unchained

Best original score, and song - Skyfall

Best costume design - Snow White and the Huntsman

Best direction - Steven Spielberg for Lincoln

Best supporting actress - Sally Field for Lincoln

Best supporting actor - Christoph Waltz for Django Unchained

Best actress - Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook

Best actor - Denzel Washington for Flight

Best picture - Silver Linings Playbook

Yep, that's right. I'm predicting a complete shut out for Le Miz. Nothing against the flick, but that's just how it played out as I picked category by category.

What do you folks think?

Ernest Borgnine 1917-2012

Ernest Borgnine passed away yesterday at the ripe old age of 95, from kidney failure.

I grew up with him in "McHale's Navy," but some of the younger folks might know him from "Airwolf" or surprisingly (at least to me) "Spongebob Squarepants." Besides those roles, Borgnine also acted in dozens of television shows in his six decade career, including an Emmy nomination for his role in the last couple episodes of "ER" when he was 92.

Borgnine was also a stage star, and because his television credits are so dominant, many folks forget what a legendary screen actor he was. He won the Oscar for his role in 1955's Marty, and was outstanding in many other films like From Here to Eternity, The Dirty Dozen, Willard, The Devil's Rain, The Poseidon Adventure and even Harlan Ellison's infamous The Oscar.

I recently saw the man interviewed on TCM. He was as boisterous and lively as he had ever been, happy to tell tales of the old days and more recent times, a happy library of the industry. We have lost one of the great actors of Hollywood.

Midnight Cowboy

Midnight Cowboy ~ This is the movie that changed the way people thought about movies, and it was also the first and only X-rated film to win the Academy Award for best picture, although the X rating meant something a little different back then than it did later on. It cemented Dustin Hoffman and Jon Voight as the stars of the 1970s, and it forever placed the song "Everybody's Talkin'" in people's heads when walking in crowds in New York City. It also features two of film's most memorable characters, and one of its most quoted lines, "I'm walkin' here."

Based on the 1965 novel by James Leo Herlihy, written for the screen by Waldo Salt, and brilliantly director by the legendary John Schlesinger, Hoffman and Voight lead an all star ensemble cast through a tour of the seedier side of New York, a Time Square that no longer exists, and the darker side of life that still haunts us. At its core, it's a tale of friendship and desperation.

The real feat of Midnight Cowboy is bringing life, thanks to the expert direction and the performances of the actors, to two almost cartoon-like characters - naïve hustler Joe Buck and the infamous Rico 'Ratso' Rizzo - amazing. You actually grow to love them and their relationship so much that the ending may bring you to tears. This is truly one of the best films of its era, and a definite game changer. Recommended.

My Oscar Picks for This Year

Okay, first off, yes, I have been lax this year with The Oscars. I am hesitant to admit this, but I really haven't even taken a good look at the nominees until earlier this week. Nevertheless, I will take a shot a predicting the Academy Awards - both what will win, as well as what should win. And just to remind all you other latecomers, check out the nominees here.

Best original Screenplay - I want Woody Allen for Midnight in Paris which I thought was brilliant, but it will probably go to The Artist.

Best Original Song - Of the choices, it's "Man or Muppet." Only two songs nominated? Really?? And only one from The Muppets??? What about the songs in Captain America or Bunraku?

Best Animated Film - Nothing deserving was nominated, and the three I saw were abysmal. For the first time in quite a few years, I don't care about this category.

Best Supporting Actor - Is it time for Nick Nolte to win this year? Plummer and von Sydow deserve it, but I think it'll go to Nolte, just a hunch.

Best Supporting Actress - I looove Janet McTeer, and would love to see her get this, but I think one of the ladies from The Help will take this one.

Best Actor - I only saw Clooney and DuJardin, but I'm still going to say the latter.

Best Actress - Meryl Streep in The Iron Lady. It's her turn again.

Best Director - If Martin Scorsese doesn't get this for Hugo, it will be a crime. Not only will the Academy admit they know nothing about direction, they nothing about film either.

Best Picture - The Help and Midnight in Paris were my favorite movies of the year in this batch, The Artist and Hugo are wonderful love letters to film itself, but I'm going to say they give it to The Help.

Check back later and see how I did. What are your picks?

Elizabeth Taylor 1932-2011

I confess. I'm a bit late to the show on this one, and that's not just a day or two late in posting this after Dame Taylor's passing. I mean I was late in discovering the phenomenal talent that is Elizabeth Taylor.

Oh sure, I knew the name, but the fact is, my first real exposure to her was on "General Hospital." Long after her film career was over, in the heyday of the soap when the names Luke and Laura were on everyone's lips, Elizabeth Taylor made a few appearances on "GH" as the sinister Helena Cassadine, in the highest rated episodes of any daytime soap opera. Of course by that time, she had already reached legend status.

The violet-eyed beauty had begun her career as a teenager decades earlier and went on to appear in dozens of films, television shows and stage roles. Liz was a two-time Academy Award winner for Best Actress, for Butterfield 8 and Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf? respectively. It was in the latter film that I first saw what an amazing talent she truly was. From that point on, I caught up on her films.

The aforementioned Woolf is probably my all time favorite, but she is best known for her roles in National Velvet, Cat on a Hot Tin Roof, Raintree County, Suddenly, Last Summer and of course the title role in 1963's Cleopatra. Liz was also known for her many marriages and in recent decades her work with many AIDS-related charities.

Elizabeth Taylor passed away yesterday morning due to complications of congestive heart failure, she was 79. We have lost one of the great ladies of Hollywood's Golden Age, and we are much poorer for it. She will be missed.

Catching Up with the Oscars

Due to some family troubles I have not been keeping up with my blogs as I probably should have, and neither have I gotten out to see all the films up for the Oscars tonight, but I wanted to take a few moments to breeze through the few I have seen.

The King's Speech ~ This by far is the best of the litter of the Best Picture nominees I have seen this year. That's not to say it will win, although it might. I have heard that The Fighter is better, but I really can't speak to that.

This fascinating film about the heir to the throne of England conquering his speech problem is one that many can understand, and it has the key handicap feature that wins Oscars so often. It's time for Colin Firth to win and this is the perfect role. Geoffrey Rush is also in the running, having himself won in a similar handicapped role in My Left Foot. There is also an interesting nod to Rush's character from Shakespeare in Love with his love of the Bard. Another nice smirk comes from the appearance of Derek Jacobi, whose best known role is that of the title role stutterer in PBS' "I, Claudius."

Even Helena Bonham Carter is entertaining here and got a nomination. I usually find her freakish and over the top. Here's proof that she can reel it in and give a great performance. There's really nothing not to like about this flick, and I wouldn't be surprised if it swept the Oscars. I had always thought the more compelling story of the royal family of this time was Edward and Mrs. Simpson, but here I am proven wrong. Bravo, recommended.

Animal Kingdom ~ This one is very slow but it shouldn't have been. Based on the synopsis, I expected an Australian gangster flick but got a somewhat quiet drama, with a few shocks and bumps along the way, instead. Disappointing but good. Jacki Weaver is up for Best Supporting Actress, and she's good, but I thought that James Frecheville was better, and quite possibly should have gotten a Best Actor nod. But what do I know?

The Town ~ I really kinda dug this Boston heist flick, and I think Jeremy Renner definitely deserves his nomination for Supporting Actor. This is a different character from last year's The Hurt Locker, a much more complex and darker portrayal, and it gets my vote. Jon Hamm does little more than show up and draw in the "Mad Men" fans however. The real star is Ben Affleck, who co-wrote, starred and directed this flick. I think it's a shame that he is apparently still on the Academy's hate list, because I think he deserves recognition for his triple threat performance here - he is the star of this one. Where are his nominations?

How to Train Your Dragon ~ I could bitch about where Tangled and Megamind were in the animated feature category, but I'll refrain. This one was a surprise, not the best animated feature this year by a long shot, but a lot of fun. It's predictable, but compelling and entertaining. Recommended.

My predictions for tonight are as follows. King's Speech for Best Picture, David Fincher for Best Director, Colin Firth and Geoffrey Rush for Actors, Natalie Portman and Hailee Steinfield for Actress, Toy Story 3 for Best Animated, Biutiful for Best Foreign, and Exit Through the Gift Shop for documentary.

Winter's Bone

Winter's Bone ~ Set in the hillbilly hell that is modern Appalachia, this is a quest movie, similar to Easy Rider, The Wizard of Oz or even The Matrix, or some weird hybrid of the three. It also reminds me of The Road, only without the relationship, the narrative or the apocalypse. It is all of these films actually, minus the excitement, happiness or enthusiasm - or momentum. Winter's Bone is slow as hell.

Best Actress nominee Jennifer Lawrence tried to find her daddy who's on the run and has put the family home up for bail. If he doesn't show up, she loses everything. Most of the folks in this hillbilly hell don't want to help her. Everyone smokes pot and carries a gun, except for our protagonist so it's hard for her to make any headway finding her father.

Did I mention how slow this flick is? I wanted to scream at the screen for something to happen other than bad grammar or verbal and physical domestic abuse. Furthermore, Winter's Bone stinks of the social commentary that the bleeding hearts of the Academy love so much, but me, I kept waiting for the point, or better yet, a plot.

Now I wanted a plot, but when the flick turned into this effed up version of The Wicker Man meets Children of the Corn with a bit of, God forbid, The Village thrown in - I started wishing it didn't have a plot. Really. This got a Best Picture nomination, and Secretariat didn't? Wow. Not recommended.

The Social Network

The Social Network ~ You know how the opening sequence to Raiders of the Lost Ark gives you everything you need to know about the protagonist Indiana Jones? This film does the same thing with Mark Zuckerberg, founder of Facebook - he's socially inept, thoughtless, self-important, and basically an asshole. It's all you need to know about him, game over, story done. The rest of the film is about Facebook, and how it affects everyone else, and just everyone else, because after the opening sequence, I really didn't care how it affected Zuckerberg - kudos to actor Jesse Eisenberg, writer Aaron Sorkin and director David Fincher. As a matter of fact, given the Academy's penchant for the handicapped - and trust me, Zuckerberg is handicapped - Eisenberg has a good chance of taking that Best Actor Oscar.

As much as I usually dislike Aaron Sorkin's work, he was adapting from Ben Mezrich's terrific book "The Accidental Billionaires: The Founding of Facebook, A Tale of Sex, Money, Genius, and Betrayal," so that counts for something. Two other elements make this film a no-brainer for me to like - it was directed by one of my favorite directors, David Fincher, and it has a score co-composed by Trent Reznor of Nine Inch Nails. Trent is one of my music gods. The direction, like the score, is very different and new territory for the creators, and yet, amazing work, the music being a highlight. Both are also nominated for Oscars. And Justin Timberlake is damn good too.

At this point, I have only seen half of the ten films nominated this year for Best Picture, but of those, The Social Network is the best, I think it has a very good chance of winning. I would give good odds to Fincher and Reznor as well. The Social Network might just sweep this year. Recommended.

Oscar Noms 2011

Well, better late than never, right?

The Oscar nominations for the 83rd Annual Academy Awards were announced early this morning. There were a few surprises, but not many. Here are the main awards...

Best Actor - Javier Bardem, Jeff Bridges, Jesse Eisenberg, Colin Firth and James Franco.

Best Supporting Actor - Christian Bale, John Hawkes, Jeremy Renner, Mark Ruffalo and Geoffrey Rush.

Best Actress - Annette Bening, Nicole Kidman, Jennifer Lawrence, Natalie Portman and Michelle Williams.

Best Supporting Actress - Amy Adams, Helena Bonham Carter, Melissa Leo, Hailee Steinfeld and Jacki Weaver.

Best Animated Film - How to Train Your Dragon, The Illusionist and Toy Story 3.

Best Foreign Film - Biutiful, Dogtooth, In a Better World, Incendies and Outside the Law.

Best Director - Darren Aronofsky, David O. Russell, Tom Hooper, David Fincher, and Joel Coen and Ethan Coen.

Best Film - Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King's Speech, 127 Hours, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit and Winter's Bone.

Hmmm... now let's not always see the same names, shall we? I can't really make official guesses at this point, having not seen all the films and performances nominated yet, but I do have some thoughts. I was fully unimpressed by both True Grit (other than Hailee Steinfield) and Inception, so I doubt they will get much more beyond the noms. I liked Hailee quite a bit. It's time for a win for Colin Firth. And I wouldn't underestimate the dark horses like The Kids Are All Right and 127 Hours.

Speaking of horses, where was Secretariat? Where was The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo in the foreign category? Where were Waiting for Superman and Despicable Me for documentary and animated film? Major snubs here, folks.

Check out the complete nominations here, folks, and I'll be back with my predictions in a while, once I've caught up on all the flicks.

Lynn Redgrave Passes Away

Actress Lynn Redgrave passed away peacefully last night after a long battle with breast cancer. She was a star of the stage and the big and small screen, and a member of the Redgrave family acting dynasty, which also lost her niece Natasha Richardson some time ago.

Lynn Redgrave's roles range from films like Georgy Girl and Gods and Monsters for which she received Oscar nominations to Tony nominated stage performances to recent television appearances on "Desperate Housewives" and "Ugly Betty."

Her personal life has never been kept from the public. Suffering from bulimia, she became an open spokeswoman for Weight Watchers and released a book with her daughter about her fight with breast cancer. Ms. Redgrave will be missed.

Quickies 4-2-2010

Gran Torino ~ As much the story of an Asian family under assault from gangs as it is about Clint Eastwood’s Oscar nominated performance as a stubborn racist widower. Eastwood was nominated but it’s the supporting cast that is really phenomenal. Highly recommended.

Captivity ~ This should have much better than it actually is. Someone’s watched far too many bad Saw sequels. More gross than suspenseful or scary. And if I wanted to hear Elisha Cuthbert scream this much I could just watch early “24” reruns with my finger on the rewind button.

The Hangover ~ Disturbing slob comedy that could have been so much better and so much funnier but it doesn’t seem to know what kind of film it wants to be. It’s part Dude, Where’s My Car? and part Very Bad Things (and not the good parts of either), and far far too heavy on the Zack Galifianakis. The Dan Band is fun for about two minutes toward the end. Pass on this one unless it’s free and you can’t reach the remote.

24 Hour Party People ~ A brilliant, funny and insightful docudrama that takes the viewer on a musical journey following the story of Factory Records in the 1970s. Steve Coogan is terrific. If you love the music, you’ll love the movie, and even if not, you’ll be entertained and informed. Worth seeing for the brief appearance of baby-faced young John Simm as New Order’s Bernard Sumner if nothing else. Recommended.

Ghosts of Girlfriends Past ~ As if I needed more proof that Matthew McConaughey is a slimy womanizer, he plays yet another one in this throwaway flick. An unoriginal lift from the Dickens school of helpful ghosts, this movie just bored me. Even though there was at least comedic potential, this is just massive fail. Avoid.

Random Thoughts on the 82nd Annual Academy Awards

The best, absolute best, part of the whole thing was the opening number with Neil Patrick Harris. After only five minutes with co-hosts Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin, I was bored to sleepy tears. Why the hell couldn’t NPH have hosted? At least I could have stayed awake – and I was even rocking the fast-forward button and was bored with Martin and Baldwin. There was no chemistry and especially no humor. NPH for next year’s show, folks, okay?

I thought the animated bit was brilliant, and as I said, if Up won, it took it out of the running for Best Picture. More bits like this would be welcomed. On the presenters, I found them more engaging and refreshing by far than Martin and Baldwin – why not next time just have a dozen different presenters and no hosts? And why didn’t they have each song performed live on the show? That’s something that folks look forward to – why get rid of it? Hopefully not to make more time for Martin and Baldwin’s nonsense...

The entire presentation for Best Screenplay with Tina Fey and Robert Downey, Jr. was brilliant. If we’re talking about how to make this show better, this is a step in the right direction. But, who dressed Downey? Wow. Also on the right track was the tribute to John Hughes. Double wow.

On the bad side, halfway through the Awards I was becoming increasingly annoyed with the clips that frequently were cut rife with spoilers and misinterpretations. These were done for each acting and Best Picture presentations mostly but I really wonder how the folks involved in those films and performances felt about them. Stanley Tucci was visibly shaken when the clip of his Supporting Actor bit was shown.

Ben Stiller should join Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin as unfunny people who should never host the Awards. Mo’Nique gave a near perfect Oscar speech, just enough of what should be in there, and not too much of shouldn’t. I see the tradition of playing folks off when they go too long is still in place – and still very selective. The tribute to Horror was a bit odd. And wasn’t Silence of the Lambs quite some time after The Exorcist? Someone on the Oscar writing staff needs to do their research better.

The intentional inclusions of clips of Martin and Baldwin in the tributes for no other real reason other than they were the hosts were becoming quite irritating as well. Not as much as their actual hosting however. The dancers doing their thing to the scores was no satisfying substitution for song performances, in my opinion. On the other hand, James Taylor singing “In My Life” during the memoriam was a really nice touch, another highlight. But where were Bea Arthur and Farrah Fawcett?

It was cool for me to see two of my favorite directors, Pedro Almodovar and Quentin Tarantino giving away the Best Foreign Film Oscar, a real treat. And what was up with the lamp background? Did the Academy run out of money when it came to stage backdrops?

On the winners, I was glad Michael Giacchino won for Best Score, as he’s my favorite composer these days. I had at least a few of my guesses right. You guys were close but not quite right with the poll to the right, as The Hurt Locker won Best Picture. All in all, this was a tolerable show, not great but not abysmal either. Remember, next year, get Neil Patrick Harris for the whole show.

And oh yeah, go, Sandra!

Food, Inc.

Food, Inc. ~ I am never happy when confronted with propaganda presented by the Health Nazis but I always walk into such situations with an open mind. But I have to say that the hard-to-negotiate DVD menu and the lack of proper subtitles did not put me and Food, Inc. off to a good start. The film was based on two books, "Fast Food Nation" by Eric Schlosser and "The Omnivore’s Dilemma" by Michael Pollan, both leaders in the Health Nazi movement.

Director Robert Kenner begins by suggesting we have been hoodwinked by the traditional perception of farming, but have we really? Anyone who can read, use the internet or otherwise think and explore for themselves will tell you it’s no secret. There is no conspiracy here, except to the ignorant, otherwise the two books mentioned above would never have been published.

Kenner falls into the Michael Moore school of filmmaking – give your mission statement and then only present facts to back that up and nothing that disproves it. At least Kenner doesn’t set anyone up or make things up, and also unlike Moore, he’s a good filmmaker. His thesis is that fast food is bad. And over an hour and a half goes toward proving that. There is some hard to watch footage here and some rough knowledge but it’s a brutal necessity if we want to continue to eat as we do.

Also, added to the list of things that are bad should be money and technology. It should be noted however, without both of those, this film would not be possible, but they’re still bad. PETA, and the Academy, will love this documentary, and so will Michael Moore, I suspect. I also suspect that Mr. Moore has had his share of fast food as well. And there you go.

Oscar Thoughts and Predictions 2010

First up on the agenda is the wild number of films up for the best Picture Oscar. The Academy is rather transparent in this ploy. Open it up to some super-popular blockbusters and maybe more folks will be interested, root for their favorites and tune in. Ratings equal money, awards for accomplishments be damned – this is America after all.

No matter how many hope for their favorite 'popular' movie, it’s probably not going to win. That’s just not how the Academy works, thankfully. It’s how their publicity people work, but not the Academy. Yeah, Up and Avatar are in the mix, but no one’s voting for them over The Hurt Locker or Precious, trust me.

And there are important oversights this year. Most notable is Sam Rockwell with his acting tour de force in Moon. Oh yeah, I forgot, with rare exception, the Oscars are only for films that came out in the last two months of the year. Oh well, the 'rules' eliminated that one, but what about Anthony Mackie in The Hurt Locker? He acts the ass off Jeremy Renner who is nominated.

And I bet Julia Roberts is steaming that Sandra Bullock cleaned up this year with roles that Roberts turned down, and may even win an Oscar for one. I really hope Julia is on hand for candid reaction shots Sunday night.

Nothing for Watchmen. Wow. I’m really surprised, especially after the way the Academy kissed the butt of one of the worst superhero movies ever, The Dark Knight last year. You’d think they’d have a little something for one of the best. And speaking of genre films – where was Ponyo? Not in foreign or animated. Damn.

Well, enough rambling and bitching. Here are my picks – and let’s keep in mind, these are who I think will win, not who should win...

Best animated film – As much as I’d like to see The Princess and the Frog take it, it’s Up all the way. It’s easily one of the best films in some time. Of course, had Ponyo been here, it would have won.

Best documentary – I think the politically correct Academy will bow to the Health Nazis this year and give it to Food, Inc.

Best song – This one depends on other awards I think. If Jeff Bridges doesn’t get best actor, they’ll give it to “The Weary Kind” to make up for it. And if Up doesn’t get best animated it will take the song here, probably with “Down in New Orleans.” My bet is “New Orleans.”

Best original score – I’m a huge Michael Giacchino fan so my heart leans toward his score for Up but I also think Hans Zimmer’s Sherlock Holmes blows it away. Why wasn’t Giacchino’s Star Trek nominated? That was the best soundtrack of the year easily.

And as much as I’m tempted to pull a Bill Murray from the classic days of “Saturday Night Live,” I do think these categories matter…

Best supporting actor – This is between Christoph Waltz’ chilling Nazi in Inglourious Basterds and the ever-talented Stanley Tucci. I think the Academy will count Tarantino against Waltz and give it to Tucci. Not the way it should be, but the way it will be.

Best supporting actress – No question, if we can’t have the Nazi villain as a winner, we’ll take the evil mother. Mo’Nique is a definite here.

Best actress – I think that Gabourey Sidibe has good odds, but I also think this may be Sandra Bullock’s year.

Best actor – It’s between Jeremy Renner and Jeff Bridges, although it might go to Morgan Freeman for body of work. Renner is young and it’s about time for Bridges. My money is on Jeff Bridges.

Best picture - The Hurt Locker. It’s a hell of a film, powerful, well acted, and brilliantly shot. Kathryn Bigelow deserves it.

Best director – James Cameron, for Avatar. It’s a hard call, but he’ll get it for advancements in film and special effects. But then again, if that were actually how things worked, the Wachowski brothers are owed a few direction Oscars for Speed Racer and the Matrix trilogy. But who says these things are fair. And if I’m right on these first two awards, it should be a happy night in the Cameron/Bigelow household.

There you go, folks, place your bets. See you late Sunday night!

Frost/Nixon

Frost/Nixon ~ Often memories are powered by significant news events. Everyone remembers where they were when the towers fell. When they heard about Kurt Cobain and about John Lennon, and of course, the granddaddy of such events – where were you when JFK was shot? This movie is like that for me.

Richard M. Nixon, and I’m giving my age away obviously, was the first US President I was aware of. I remember the turmoil of the war protests, and the Vietnam War itself on the news, the Watergate hearings that pre-empted all programming during the day, and the man’s frequent speeches to the nation in prime time. I specifically remember the day Nixon resigned; it was the same day of the first time my parents ever took me to a mall. I remember reading his memoir "R.N.," and I remember watching the David Frost interviews on which this movie was based.

The film is an interesting duel between two men who each have their admirable qualities and serious flaws as well, but I think the words of Kevin Bacon, in the minor role of Nixon bodyguard Jack Brennan, best sum it up as boxers squaring off verbally. This is a duel, not an interview, with two combatants who have underestimated each other tremendously. The intense performances from Frank Langella and Michael Sheen in the title roles make this a must-see film. Recommended.

The Hurt Locker

The Hurt Locker ~ This is a guy movie, and a damn good one – but I think if it wasn’t set in the topical Iraq War, it probably wouldn’t be nominated. That’s not to say it’s not a good film – it’s a great film. But we all know that politics –especially politically correct politics- always sways the Academy. The Ministry soundtrack of anti-war, anti-Bush music hits the point home where the film’s heart is.

The Hurt Locker is something we haven’t seen in some time, a war movie, and that’s probably because currently, we are at war. And it’s a new age war movie. The way that films like Platoon, Apocalypse Now and Steel Metal Jacket changed our perceptions, The Hurt Locker will as well.

Performances by Jeremy Renner and especially Anthony Mackie, who was ashamedly not nominated for Best Actor, are top notch, and overshadow easily veteran actors like Ralph Fiennes and Guy Pearce. It was directed by James Cameron’s wife Kathryn Bigelow at her husband’s urging – and now she might beat him for the Best Picture Oscar.

This is an intense, no holds barred, war movie for our time – and highly recommended – my odds-on favorite to win the Oscar. So far.

Oscar Nominations 2009

Yep, that time of year again. At approximately 5:30 this morning, every movie geek in the world was at their computers or glued to their TVs to see what the Motion Picture Academy selected as the best for the year 2008. I was too, but afterward I went back to bed. Yep, I was that impressed.

Here's what we're stuck with this time around:

Best actor: Richard Jenkins, Frank Langella, Sean Penn, Brad Pitt and Mickey Rourke

Best supporting actor: Josh Brolin, Robert Downey Jr., Philip Seymour Hoffman, Heath Ledger and Michael Shannon

Best actress: Anne Hathaway, Angelina Jolie, Melissa Leo, Meryl Streep and Kate Winslet

Best supporting actress: Amy Adams, Penélope Cruz, Viola Davis, Taraji P. Henson and Marisa Tomei

Best director: David Fincher, Ron Howard, Gus Van Sant, Stephen Daldry and Danny Boyle

Best film: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Frost/Nixon, Milk, The Reader and Slumdog Millionaire

The rest of the noms can be found here.

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My early picks and guesses...

Mickey Roarke is back in Hollywood's good graces and will take actor for The Wrestler. For supporting actor, it's Philip Seymour Hoffman by elimination. Downey was terrific but just far too politically incorrect for the Academy, and he was also in that superhero movie, as was the late Heath Ledger. Frank Miller put superhero movies back in the ghetto with his 'interpretation of The Spirit so there's no way a comic book movie can ever win.

Best actress should go to Kate Winslet, but for Revolutionary Road rather than The Reader. And I think the magic of The Wrestler will help Marisa Tomei get her second Oscar - this one legit. ;-)

I believe that Slumdog Millionaire will take both best picture and director as well for Danny Boyle, as well as for score and song. I'm guessing Waltz with Bashir for best foreign film and Wall-E for best animated.

Also I need answers when it comes to The Curious Case of Benjamin Button as I haven't seen it. Did anyone like it? Do you know anyone who liked it? Heck, has anyone even read a good review of it? I'm puzzled by this one.

That Time of Year Again

The last few weeks of the year are here and it’s time for Hollywood to roll out their finest stuff in hopes the Academy will take notice and bestow an Oscar on these films. There are a lot of them out there.

Doubt is getting a lot of hype. Milk and Gran Torino promise career performances from Sean Penn and Clint Eastwood respectively. The much talked about reverse-aging epic The Curious Case of Benjamin Button is out there as well. There’s also Will Smith in Seven Pounds, Tom Cruise in Valkyrie, the animated Waltz with Bashir from Ari Folman and Revolutionary Road from Sam Mendes.

Like I said, there are a lot of them, and this is the way it’s been at the end of the year for the last couple decades. The studios want their Oscar hopefuls in the Academy’s faces right before nomination time, and for the most part, this simple ploy usually works. Mark my words, most of the above flicks will make up the majority of the noms this year.

This is bullshit in my opinion. Time of year shouldn’t matter. A good movie, an Oscar-worthy movie, is Oscar-worthy no matter what time of year it is released. If these studios had any reall balls they would release all of these in January. If a flick is really that good, the Academy will remember it come December. And if not, if the Academy is that dim-witted and memory-handicapped, why are they allowed to vote?

2008 Oscar Predictions

No long-winded explanations, no dancing around the subject, no bullshit – just my predictions. Here we go:

Performance by an actor in a leading role
Daniel Day-Lewis in "There Will Be Blood" (Paramount Vantage and Miramax)

Performance by an actor in a supporting role
Philip Seymour Hoffman in "Charlie Wilson's War" (Universal)

Performance by an actress in a leading role
Laura Linney in "The Savages" (Fox Searchlight)

Performance by an actress in a supporting role
Ruby Dee in "American Gangster" (Universal)

Best animated feature film of the year
"Persepolis" (Sony Pictures Classics): Marjane Satrapi and Vincent Paronnaud

Achievement in art direction
"Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street" (DreamWorks and Warner Bros., Distributed by DreamWorks/Paramount): Art Direction: Dante Ferretti; Set Decoration: Francesca Lo Schiavo

Achievement in cinematography
"There Will Be Blood" (Paramount Vantage and Miramax): Robert Elswit

Achievement in costume design
"Elizabeth: The Golden Age" (Universal) Alexandra Byrne

Achievement in directing
"Michael Clayton" (Warner Bros.), Tony Gilroy

Best documentary feature
"Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience" (The Documentary Group) A Documentary Group Production: Richard E. Robbins

Best documentary short subject
"Sari's Mother" (Cinema Guild) A Daylight Factory Production: James Longley

Achievement in film editing
"The Bourne Ultimatum" (Universal): Christopher Rouse

Best foreign language film of the year
"12" Russia

Achievement in makeup
"La Vie en Rose" (Picturehouse) Didier Lavergne and Jan Archibald

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)
"The Kite Runner" (DreamWorks, Sidney Kimmel Entertainment and Participant Productions, Distributed by Paramount Classics): Alberto Iglesias

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)
"Happy Working Song" from "Enchanted" (Walt Disney): Music by Alan Menken; Lyric by Stephen Schwartz

Best motion picture of the year
"There Will Be Blood" (Paramount Vantage and Miramax) A JoAnne Sellar/Ghoulardi Film Company Production: JoAnne Sellar, Paul Thomas Anderson and Daniel Lupi, Producers

Best animated short film
"Peter & the Wolf" (BreakThru Films) A BreakThru Films/Se-ma-for Studios Production Suzie Templeton and Hugh Welchman

Achievement in visual effects
"The Golden Compass" (New Line in association with Ingenious Film Partners): Michael Fink, Bill Westenhofer, Ben Morris and Trevor Wood

Adapted screenplay
"No Country for Old Men" (Miramax and Paramount Vantage), Written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen

Original screenplay
"Juno" (A Mandate Pictures/Mr. Mudd Production), Written by Diablo Cody

Catch up with next week to see how close I was...